A ho-hum month.
music selection:  “What is Life” — George Harrison
ASSETS:

Wells Fargo (taxable): This finished the month up 62 dollars at 28,592.  That is a 0.22% monthly gain and good for 8.39% annual gain.

Interactive Brokers (taxable): Here I finished the month at 229,209 up from 221,261 last month.  That is a monthly gain of 3.59% and year to date gain of 43.96%.

Interactive Brokers (tIRA): This account is down 3,063 to 158,170 versus last month.  The monthly loss is 1.90%.  Feel pretty good about the long term performance of this mostly property and casualty insurance portfolio that has a year to date gain of 7.80%.

HSA: This account is up 135 on the period to 3,339.  That is a 4.22% move in the right direction or 30.11% year to date.  This account is still “small” and will see wild swings until it has more ballast.

Checking: Cash is up to 11,748 from 10,986.  That is a 6.93% increase from last month and 36.79% gain year to date.  I have an HSA contribution to make still this year.  Fortunately, budget performance has been very good and my cash balance has increased most of the distance to this year’s contribution cap.

Total investable assets come to 431,058 up 1.37% from 425,214 last month and up 25.50% from 343,483 year to date.

Don’t forget to see the long term trend at Lizard King’s Transparency Page.

LIABILITIES:

Home: paid

Car: paid

Income tax: I have a 12,945 tax asset on deposit with the service.  Because of the mishap with UVXY, I expect to have a trivial tax liability this year and should even qualify for the maximum ACA subsidy.  Net tax rate could be negative for 2018.  I usually have to file late because MLPs are notorious for delivering K-1’s after the filing deadline.

WITHDRAWAL RATE:

I have automatic withdrawals from my taxable investing accounts set to provide a cash income of 25,000 a year.  Against a liquid net worth of 431,058 that is a withdrawal rate of 5.80%.  I earned 2,070 in options premium income during the month of March, inclusive of 1,156 of short term capital gains on shares that were called away.  Additionally, my income centric approach to investing includes 24,941 in expected distributions, dividends, and interest for the year or an additional 99.76% of budget.  In the event of a downtown, I should be immune to the need to “sell at the bottom”.  At the same time, I can expect steady and robust growth to keep ahead of inflation.

SPENDING:

Spending was 1,552 for the month, which is well under the 2,000 target.   I will be spending much less on Stansberry products now that I have a Choice account allowing access to 10 services with my PWA subscription combined.  This should allow me to come in under budget for the year and for the foreseeable future.  A transfer from cash to HSA will come later in the year.

OTHER INCOME:

I earned 150 this month or 139 after payroll taxes for my efforts at the Memorial Hills UD municipal water board.  It is a small amount but over a year’s time it adds up to another full social security credit.  This should improve my eventual payout when I reach qualifying age.

Devour your prey raptors!


Financial Transparency as of 31MAR2019

Never miss another opportunity to devour prey!

3 thoughts on “Financial Transparency as of 31MAR2019

  • April 1, 2019 at 3:40 pm
    Permalink

    25% YTD is quite a comeback. I expect you’ll be making adjustments soon based on the yield curve inversion, and these will have the effect of reducing your portfolio volatility/leverage/beta.

    Question: Why do you think the 3mo/10y yield curve inverted before, say, the 2y/10y? Seems counterintuitive. I wonder if the signal is that some group of market participants suddenly and all at once realized a recession is imminent and that large emergency rate cuts are likely this year – as in, within a few months? Were they not even willing to take 2y worth of interest rate risk?

    The financial media is full of “this doesn’t mean recession” stories but they offer no compelling reasons why “this time is different.” Most reason that last month’s or last quarter’s numbers look good, but that’s history, not a prediction.

    Reply
    • April 1, 2019 at 6:47 pm
      Permalink

      Chris,

      I’m stumped! I mean truly. Who exactly is buying/selling the 2yr at the current bid-ask spread? Are these people just truly irrational to the tune of more zeros than you or I could count? For a while there, the 1 and 2 month Treasury was trading above the 90 day as well. That is madness.

      Correlation is not causation but at some point you have to recognize that a trend line exists. The sticky wicket is historically, yield curve inversions precede a recession by anywhere from 4 to 18 months. Do you stay long? I’m still long but my covered call trades are being rolled off and reduced to half position sizes. I’m writing at or even in the money. And I’m actively looking for more short opportunities, especially long dated long puts to give leveraged protection against a market rout.

      Reply
      • April 2, 2019 at 2:48 pm
        Permalink

        I actually think the unemployment rate is a recession predictor. Check a historical chart. When unemployment drops below 4%, it never stays there for long. This is because low unemployment rates prevent businesses from growing and causes them to make suboptimal hiring decisions. No growth = recession.

        Reply

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